Updates from February, 2013 Toggle Comment Threads | Keyboard Shortcuts

  • Eric Anderson 8:30 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink  

    All right everyone. I need to get a few things done this evening. Have a great night.

     
  • Garrick van Buren 8:21 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink  

    @swedenssons – you spent the Loppet observing teams, any interesting new game play you witnessed?

     
    • Eric Anderson 8:24 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      Tossing at the king to lose on purpose to start game two when time limits are short.
      The rescue play I saw and how it unfolded.
      A lot of young guys with the look in their eyes that they could get into the sport part of it.

  • Eric Anderson 7:27 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink  

    Let’s get this party started. We will be here until 8pm. Time to talk Kubb and US Championship.

     
    • Garrick 7:34 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      hey eric. this was a great idea. I’ll be in & out as I’m in between bedtime with the kids.

      • Eric Anderson 7:35 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink | Log in to Reply

        Short notice is probably not the best, but I figured I would give it a try.

        • Eric Anderson 7:39 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          How do I get a picture for my image.

        • Garrick 7:56 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          @swedenssons – set up an account @ gravatar.com. The photo in gravatar.com that you tie to your pitch.planetkubb.com address will automatically display next to your comments here.

        • Eric Anderson 8:01 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          Thanks.

    • Eric Anderson 7:47 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      Just got an email asking who we thought the favorite is for 2013. Great question. We would say both Team Knockerheads and Kubbsicles are even right now. Can either be beat? Sure, but you will have to bring you A+ game and hope for a slip from them. TK at the Loppet was overly impressive at 8 meters and Josh probably still has the advantage on Mark for the inkastare position. That being said, the young kids get it done and have no fear, not saying TK does. If they are both in the Final again, we would not be surprised and would enjoy the show.

    • Eric Anderson 7:52 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      Got another question about sleepers. Remember, Leinenkubbels were the only team to beat Kubbsicles last year. They finished 3rd, and we think some teams might think that was a fluke. We don’t. Solid team with very underrated inkastare. Also, Dark Side of the Kubb seems to be upcoming along

      • Eric Anderson 7:55 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink | Log in to Reply

        With kubbilicious Maximus and Von trappe family slingers. We say them, as we have played against them since the 2012 Championship and have seen them take some good teams far in a match. We would love to see another top Des Moines team or Twin Cities team come up as well. Heck, we would love to see more teams from all the clubs lie Appleton, Madison, etc.

      • Eric Anderson 7:56 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink | Log in to Reply

        Then, we think Goofy Kubbers could make a very deep run this year. In one year, their inkastare Evan Fitzgerald has become what we think is a top 10, if not 5 or 6 in the country.

    • Chris Hodges 7:58 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      Got an over/under on how many of last year’s quarter finalists will be playing on Sunday this year?

      • Eric Anderson 8:00 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink | Log in to Reply

        We will say five.

      • Eric Anderson 8:01 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink | Log in to Reply

        4.5 should make an interesting Vegas line.

      • Eric Anderson 8:04 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink | Log in to Reply

        We do think it is going to get a lot harder to get to Sunday. The average teams are getting better and the good teams, some are getting really good.

      • Eric Anderson 8:06 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink | Log in to Reply

        Do you want to name them?

        • Chris Hodges 8:07 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          Not until I see the groups & brackets!!!

        • Chris Hodges 8:09 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          PK will run a few hundred thousand computer simulations and get back to you with the most likely results. :-)

        • Eric Anderson 8:12 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          Come on Mr. Hodges, Knockerheads, Kubbsicles, Tad Kubbler, I know you have those three, who are your two or more?

        • Garrick 8:14 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          Kubb Snipers & Ringers?

        • Eric Anderson 8:15 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          Kubb Snipers did not make it last year. T9.

        • Garrick 8:15 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          @swedenssons – thanks, I didn’t remember.

        • Chris Hodges 8:17 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          Kubb Snipers will have an uphill battle without the seeding, but I think they will make it this year. Any team Scott Forster drills for, and Leinies.

        • Chris Hodges 8:19 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          I think the Wolfpack has the talent to make it back too. How long has it been since they didn’t at least make the quarters?

        • Eric Anderson 8:21 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          We think that a lot of people will realize this year that a top 16 seed and top 8 even more so is vital. We love this game!!

        • bricker 8:21 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          Hey Guys: I’d like to see the Kubb Snipers in–mostly because of my personal history with them.

        • Chris Hodges 8:22 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          But obviously I can’t pick all of these teams if they will be meeting each other late Saturday! Can’t wait until the live draw – Kubbnation chatter goes off the charts as soon as the groups drop.

        • bricker 8:23 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          But I also think that the game has enough room for a dark horse, a freak, an accident…skill is critical but there is more than just skill happening. With so many good teams it comes down to a few tosses. Anything can happen.

        • Eric Anderson 8:27 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink

          Wolfpack 2010 didn’t make it. Hard not to see five make it back. Love to see a new team come from far away make a run to Sunday. That would be awesome.

      • Eric Anderson 8:14 pm on February 16, 2013 Permalink | Log in to Reply

        We are curious on how many of the Top 16 will come back.

  • ringerjr 10:11 pm on November 14, 2012 Permalink  

    Let’s Play Kubb!

     
  • Garrick van Buren 9:50 am on November 7, 2012 Permalink
    Tags:   

    Of the 46 tournament games in the wiki, 32 have an advantage line somewhere game play.
    The percentage chance that leaving an advantage line results in a loss? 100% 88% (see @chrishodge’s correction below)

     
    • Chris Hodges 10:10 am on November 7, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      That isn’t true – see these as examples:

      Twin Cities Winter Tournament 2012 Final Game 1
      Rockford 2012 Championship Head Slap v. Tad Kubbler (Game 2)
      US Nationals 2012, Finals, Knockerheads v. Kubbsicles, July 15 (Game 1)
      Kubb Open 2012, Finals, Kubb’Ings vs Fortschritt99 Blue (Game Two)

      In each of the above the winning team left an advantage line at some point but their opponents returned the favor later in the game.

      • Garrick 10:24 am on November 7, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply

        @chrishodges – thanks for double checking the work. Looks like in each of those games, each team left an advantage line. this lowers the chances to losing to 88%.

        • swedenssons 10:32 am on November 7, 2012 Permalink

          Is this in the next turn, or in general?
          Is there a way to run a regression, or something, and see how quickly you lose a game based on the number of field kubbs in play when you allow the other team to move up?

    • Garrick 10:51 am on November 7, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      @swedenssons – here’s another pass at the advantage line stats:

      32 games have an advantage line
      31 games had the final turn on the advantage line
      66 turns have advantage lines (so it’s tough to clear the advantage line once it remains)

      • Garrick 11:04 am on November 7, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply

        This data tells me that an advantage line almost always results in an immediate loss.

        Primarily because of the difficulty in recovering from leaving an advantage line.

        There’s a slim chance the losing team may be able to hold on for a couple more turns, maybe even recover from that initial advantage line, but they’ll leave another one – and lose immediately.

  • Garrick van Buren 8:36 pm on November 6, 2012 Permalink
    Tags:   

    In case you were wondering about the chances you might leave an advantage line here’s a handy chart:

    from the 46 tournament games currently in the wiki

     
    • Dobbie 9:00 pm on November 6, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      Sweet, sweet stats. Under 50% to over 90% from 9 to 10 kubbs. Interesting.

      • Garrick 10:16 pm on November 6, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply

        I kept hearing Terry Ekelöf saying ‘Get Better’ as I was putting this graph together.

        • Dano 9:16 am on November 7, 2012 Permalink

          I also hear Terry saying “we play not to lose” when he was talking about throwing some kubbs long when there were more then seven to toss. Makes a lot of sense after seeing this chart.

        • Dobbie 9:55 am on November 7, 2012 Permalink

          @dano – perhaps for 6 player teams throwing long in certain situations makes sense. Not sure that strategy is valid for 2 or 3 person teams…..yet.

    • Jamie Thingelstad 10:45 pm on November 6, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      Great graph @garrick! I’m looking forward to automating a graph like that right in the scoring system. This is a key stat for teams to know of their own roster.

    • swedenssons 8:55 am on November 7, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      This is awesome stuff. A couple quick ideas/questions. Can you have horizontal lines across it so one can see the exact(ish) percentages. Also, I would be very curious on (if it is possible) the percent you lose a match in the turn you let the team move up AND the second turn after you let them move up. Is that possible? That would then tell a person how often you let the team move up AND what the result of that is. I have a feeling that everything is possible for you two guys though. I will also just add one more thing. I think this is for a lot of late in the day games, right? The top teams playing in a tournament. I would be really curious what these results would be like if they were for the “average” game. My thought is that the percentages would go up. Perhaps that is a very easy statement to make, but it would be neat to see how much. Another reason to score more random matches throughout the day. The other cool thing would be to see the results for two-person team tournaments vs. three-person team tournaments. Again, this is really cool. Not sure how long it took you to run the numbers, but whatever it was, thanks for doing it.

    • Garrick 9:16 am on November 7, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply

      @swedenssons – here are the exact percentages:
      1:5% (admittedly, this is all me)
      2:0%
      3:9%
      4:10%
      5:19%
      6:15%
      7:23%
      8:31%
      9:47%
      10:100%
      Of course – these percentages and all the other overall stats will be much much more accurate with more games. With only 46 games outliers are much more prominent than they should be.

  • Jamie 1:04 pm on October 14, 2012 Permalink  

    Great job @swedenssons, @ringerjr and Scott in interview with Johan Lundin.

     
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